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Bitcoin’s path to $200,000 by December has gained a new champion. Digital-asset research boutique Capriole Investments drew attention over the weekend to fresh modelling from on-chain analyst “ElonMoney,” arguing that a $200,000 print is not only plausible but statistically grounded. “$200K is real,” Capriole wrote on X, adding that the thread is “a great use of Capriole Charts to conduct a macro Bitcoin analysis.”
In the research, ElonMoney assembles six long-horizon indicators. “For this analysis, I used metrics like the MVRV Z-Score, Energy Value Oscillator, Bitcoin Heater, Macro Index, and other indicators, as well as historical data,” the researcher writes. “TL;DR: $200K is real.”
Bitcoin To $200K Is Real
The MVRV Z-Score, which measures how many standard deviations Bitcoin’s market capitalisation sits above its realised capitalisation, begins the stack. At present the score hovers a touch above 2. ElonMoney calls that “a neutral zone, far from the overheated red band,” adding, “Today’s reading tells us the tank is far from empty; previous cycle tops did not arrive until the Z-Score screamed through seven.” The implication, according to the author, is that price could double from current levels without violating historical symmetry.
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Energy economics reaches a similar verdict. “The energy value acts as a gravity well for price,” ElonMoney explains, referring to the Energy Value Oscillator, which equates a theoretical fair value to aggregate network energy consumption. That fair-value line sits near $130,000—above spot—so the oscillator itself is close to zero.
“Until the oscillator shows a 100 percent premium, talk of a terminal top is premature,” he argues, pointing to the 2021 peak, when the premium exceeded one hundred percent even though Bitcoin capped under $70,000. Under current hash-rate projections the model’s fair value could reach $150,000 by October; a repeat of the historical premium would place price in the $225,000 to $300,000 corridor.
Derivatives telemetry offers corroboration rather than contradiction. Bitcoin Heater, a composite of perpetual-swap funding, calendar-spread basis and options skew, reads 0.6–0.7. “Derivatives have begun to simmer, not boil,” the note says. “We are nowhere near the sustained 0.9-plus prints that bleed into blow-off tops. Euphoria needs leverage, and leverage is still only warming up.”
The Macro Index Oscillator, built from more than forty on-chain and macro inputs, currently registers +0.7. “That is an unmistakable expansion print,” ElonMoney concedes, “but expansion is not exhaustion. In 2021 we watched the same indicator crest at three.” The researcher stresses that user growth, fee revenue and realised profit-and-loss series all point to an economy that is accelerating, not decelerating.
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Liquidity depth, captured by the proprietary “Volume Summer” gauge, is favourable but subdued. “Capital is flowing back into spot markets, yet we have not seen the fever-green highlights that accompany retail stampedes,” says the report. The gauge’s latest reading of +75,000 units contrasts with the +150,000 figure recorded sixty days before the April 2021 apex. “Liquidity is positive; it is not parabolic,” ElonMoney writes.
Finally comes leverage in absolute terms. The ratio of total open interest to market capitalisation is just under 3.5%. ElonMoney calls the figure “constructive but not combustible,” adding, “The market mechanically cannot top until speculators believe it cannot fall. We are not at that point yet. If OI/Mcap presses past five percent, alarms will sound; until then, leverage is fuel.”
Capriole itself does not publish a price target, yet by circulating the analysis it tacitly accepts the inference that Bitcoin has ample upside into year-end. “$200K is real,” Capriole’s post reads in full, appending a screenshot of the report’s headline chart.
The timing question hinges on how quickly those six dials swing toward their historical extremes. ElonMoney offers a conditional roadmap: “If MVRV punches through seven, if the Energy Value premium breaks one hundred percent, if Heater pins at one, and if OI/Mcap hits five percent, you will know distribution territory is in sight.” Barring that confluence, he believes price discovery will grind higher. “Bitcoin does not die of old age,” the note concludes. “It dies of over-valuation, and we are demonstrably not there yet.”
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $109,559, leaving a near-90% run required to validate ElonMoney’s base case before year-end.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
