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FTSE 250 recruitment specialist PageGroup (LSE: PAGE) has seen its share price fall 25% so far in 2025. And from a five-year high in 2021, we’re looking at a huge 62% drop. But could we be looking at a top mid-cap recovery buy now? A lot could depend on where its dividend goes, with a forecast yield of 6.7%.
The 2024 year was a tough one across the sector. PageGroup reported “worsening sentiment and reduced confidence in Europe during the second half of the year“. But the company still lifted its dividend by 4.5%, “reflecting confidence in our strategy“. The dividend wasn’t covered by earnings per share (EPS). But if the 63% EPS drop really is a one-off, that might not be a problem.
What might be a problem however, is the 2025 outlook being “uncertain due to increasingly unpredictable economic environment“. In a Q1 update in April, PageGroup said “the slower end to Q4 2024 continued into Q1 2025“.
I think I’ll wait until I see how things look at the 2025 halfway stage. But if the dividend holds, I think it’ll be one to consider as a long-term buy.
Overlooked cash cow?
A 34% share price fall over the past five years has pushed the forecast dividend yield at MONY Group (LSE: MONY) up to 6.3%. That might not be so great if earnings were falling at the same time. But EPS has actually been growing in the past few years, and analysts expect the trend to continue.
Forecasts suggest a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.5, dropping to 10.5 by 2027. So I think what we’re looking at is a justified correction to a stock price that had been getting a bit overheated.
Predicted dividend cover looks maybe a bit thin in the next few years, at around 1.3 times. And that has to put the dividend outlook under some pressure. Still, at FT results time for 2024, the company, formerly known as Moneysupermarket.com, announced a £30m share buyback reflecting its “strong cash generation and robust financial position“.
The business faces intense competition. And we’re still under the collective hammer of high interest rates and economic turmoil. But I think long-term dividend investors could do well to think about it.
Business property
I’m turning to real estate investment trusts (REITs) now. And the 40% share price fall at Workspace Group (LSE: WKP) catches my eye. The company lets office space across London. So I can see why the past few high-inflation years have taken their toll.
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At the moment, interest rates aren’t helping. Especially not with the company reporting net debt of £847m at the end of the third quarter in December. But there seems to be no liquidity problem, with £233m in cash and undrawn facilities on the books.
I think the company could be in a strong position when interest rates come down, hopefully on two fronts. It should lower future borrowing costs, and give boosts to clients’ businesses.
Ongoing economic uncertainty could be the biggest drawback here. We should have full-year results on 5 June, and I fear we could still see some strong headwinds. But investors with confidence in the expected 6.6% dividend yield might take a closer look at buying in advance.
