Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has dropped 14.5% in the past 16 days, pushing the Crypto Fear & Greed Index to 16 (Extreme Fear), which is its lowest rating year-to-date.
While selling has dominated markets over the past two weeks, Bitcoin derivatives data suggest the current trader positioning may lead to a recovery. Analysts are now weighing whether the latest sell-off has created conditions for a relief rally.
Key takeaways:
Binance open interest has climbed more than 30% from its October 2025 lows, confirming rising activity within the Bitcoin futures market.
A move toward $92,000 may put over $6.5 billion in short positions at risk of liquidation.
Market imbalance opens the door to a relief rally
From a technical standpoint, BTC has swept its swing lows between $80,000 and $83,000, clearing a large cluster of long liquidations. With that downside liquidity taken, attention is shifting higher.
CoinGlass data shows that a move toward $92,000 may place over $6.5 billion in cumulative short positions at risk of liquidation. By contrast, a drop to $72,600 would only threaten about $1.2 billion. This imbalance means upside moves may force short sellers to buy back positions, potentially accelerating price recovery.
Additionally, crypto commentator MartyParty framed the recent move as part of a Wyckoff Accumulation “Spring,” where price briefly dips below support to shake out weak hands before reversing.
In this context, the sweep below $83,000 may act as a final liquidity grab, allowing larger participants to buy discounted Bitcoin. If followed by sustained buying, the next phase may exhibit a price expansion with upside targets extending back toward $100,000.
Bitcoin futures positioning shows mixed signals
Bitcoin’s decline triggered an estimated $800 billion in liquidations over the past 24 hours, the largest single-day event since late November, when BTC last traded near $81,000.
Yet, according to crypto analyst Darkfost, the open interest on Binance has risen to 123,500 BTC, exceeding levels seen ahead of the Oct. 10, when open interest fell to 93,600 BTC. A roughly 31% increase since then suggests traders are rebuilding exposure rather than fully exiting the market.
Broader derivatives activity has also cooled. Monthly Bitcoin futures volume across all exchanges fell to about $1.09 trillion in January, the lowest since 2024. Trading remained concentrated on major venues, led by Binance with $378 billion, followed by OKX at $169 billion and Bybit near $156 billion.
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