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Key Takeaways
- Brent crude fell about 4.30% to $83.31 after Trump declared the US-Iran peace deal complete on June 14.
- Bitcoin reclaimed $65,000 and roughly $150 million in shorts were liquidated as risk appetite returned.
- A signing ceremony is set for Friday in Switzerland, with the EU’s big four ready to lift Iran sanctions as well.
Crude Slides as Trump Declares Iran Deal Done
Brent crude futures for August delivery traded about 4.26% lower at $83.31 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate for July delivery dropped more than 5% to around $80.25, its the lowest level since March 10. The decline followed Trump’s announcement that Washington and Tehran had agreed to an immediate and permanent termination of military operations.
“The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete,” Trump wrote, adding that toll-free shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would resume. Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif separately confirmed that the two sides had declared a permanent end to hostilities, and an official signing ceremony is scheduled for Friday in Switzerland.
About 20% of global oil supplies passed through the Strait before tanker traffic plunged in early March, when Iranian attacks triggered what analysts described as the biggest oil supply disruption in history. Under the agreement, the strait will reopen without a toll system, and the U.S. will end its naval blockade of Iran.
Energy Markets Unwind a War Premium
The price action marks a sharp reversal of the risk premium that had built into energy markets during the conflict. In late March, industry consultant Fereidun Fesharaki had warned that oil could spike to between $150 and $200 per barrel. Instead, the move toward a settlement has pulled prices back toward pre-conflict ranges.
For Iran, the reopening of Hormuz and the prospect of sanctions relief could restore a significant share of its oil exports, given that the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Italy are all reportedly preparing to lift sanctions against the Middle Eastern nation (a step that would further loosen global supply and weigh on prices).
Lower energy costs have historically eased inflation expectations, indirectly supporting risk assets. Moreover, cheaper oil reduces input costs across the economy and can give central banks more room to loosen monetary policy.
Bitcoin Rebounds as Risk Appetite Returns
Bitcoin responded to the de-escalation by climbing back above $65,000, reaching as high as $65,910 shortly after the announcement and adding to a broader risk-on move as equities and crypto markets priced in a calmer geopolitical outlook.
The bounce also squeezed bearish traders with roughly $150 million worth of short positions being liquidated across the crypto market following the peace agreement. Bitcoin.com News previously reported on similar episodes, including a bounce to $64,000 that wiped out $320 million in shorts in 15 minutes.
Still, the rally arrives against a weaker institutional backdrop, with spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recording $316 million in net outflows during the week of June 8 to June 12, the fifth consecutive week of withdrawals. That tension of improving macro sentiment set against fading institutional demand has left the durability of the move open to question.
In that light, whether Trump’s truce call translates into a sustained crypto rally relief will depend on the successful signing ceremony scheduled for Friday and on how quickly sanctions relief reshapes global oil flows.
