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Bitcoin (BTC) sees its first weekly close above $80,000 since early May as clouds gather over the US inflation outlook.
Key points:
- US PPI and CPI inflation numbers are due this week prior to the Fed’s Sept. 16 decision on interest-rate changes.
- Amid record currency interventions, analysis warns that Japan may not be able to sell US treasuries to help stabilize the yen in going forward.
- Bitcoin’s supertrend indicator delivers its first “buy” signal since late 2025, copying the previous bear-market recovery.
CPI, PPI due as markets see 0.25% rate hike next
US inflation data returns to the forefront this week after surprise employment data pressured crypto and risk assets. The August prints of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) are due for release on Thursday and Friday, respectively.
CPI matched market expectations at 0.1% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year last month, continuing on from softer-than-anticipated June results. Although the numbers paint a positive picture for inflation, Kevin Warsh, chair of the US Federal Reserve, stated that these data prints alone did not support the case for reassessing financial policy.
“Each of these broad inflation measures have fallen significantly from their highs of a few years ago, but progress through the past couple of years has been more modest, and while this summer’s PCE and CPI readings were better than expected, they do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved,” he said at the Jackson Hole economic symposium in late August, referring to the Fed’s “preferred” inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index.
In response to the speech, markets priced in an increased likelihood of Federal Reserve rate hikes at its next meeting on Sept. 16. The latest data from the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows that consensus favors a 0.25% rate hike, with odds at 58.4%.
Fed target rate probability comparison for September FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group
Fears of rate hikes were also spurred by last week’s nonfarm payrolls data, which came in far stronger than expected and included upward revisions of prior figures. The US economy added 162,000 jobs in August against a prior estimate of 56,000.
A stronger labor market reduces the need for the Fed to loosen policy, cementing the potential for rate hikes with core inflation still above its 2% target. Markets have maintained a hawkish outlook on rates. This is despite Fed governor Christopher Waller voicing support for an ongoing rate-hike pause and US president Donald Trump renewing pressure on the Fed to enact rate cuts last week.
“The Fed Board, with its great new leader, must get smart – BE PATRIOTS for a change. High interest rates put the U.S.A. at a very unfair disadvantage, and I won’t allow that to happen!” he wrote in a post on Truth Social.
Both PPI and CPI have the potential to alter the outlook prior to the meeting, with crypto market volatility often accompanying inflation-data prints.
Commenting, trading resource Mosaic Asset Company noted that the strong jobs numbers could still offer stocks a silver lining.
“While the knee-jerk reaction is centered around the rate outlook, it’s worth keeping in mind that good news for the economy should be good news for corporate earnings. The jobs report adds to recent data pointing to an economy expanding at solid pace, which should support the bull market looking ahead,” it wrote in analysis at the weekend.
Mosaic cautioned that seasonality could add an additional hurdle, with September traditionally equities’ worst-performing month, while November’s US midterm elections should make for more volatile conditions into Q4.
Japanese yen interventions hit record
Traders are focused on the Japanese yen as new government data reveals the extent of its record currency interventions.
On Monday, Japan’s Ministry of Finance reported that its foreign reserves had decreased by $79.57 billion from the end of July amid a record currency intervention in the yen. Japan’s currency strengthened to 155 against the US dollar as a result, still holding that area during Monday’s Asia trading session.
“Japan may have used both foreign securities and deposits, but it most likely sold U.S. Treasurys,” Atsushi Takeda, chief economist at Itochu Research Institute, told Bloomberg.
USD/JPY one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The move had potential implications beyond the yen, with US bond yields already facing pressure at the long end, prompting the Treasury to announce contingency measures set to begin on Sept. 9. Japan selling US Treasuries to fund future interventions may draw a negative response from Washington, leaving the Bank of Japan (BOJ) in a bind should yen weakness return.
“That would make it difficult for the ministry and the Bank of Japan to act going forward,” Akari Nishimura, economist at the Japan Research Institute, added.
Polymarket probabilities for BOJ rate decision on Sept. 18. Source: Polymarket
Traders now price in an interest-rate hike by the BOJ in September, with benchmark rates already at their highest since 1995 at 1.0%. Data from Polymarket currently sees 98% odds of a 0.25% increase.
Crypto markets remain highly sensitive to moves in USD/JPY and associated headlines due to the potential longer-term impact on the yen carry trade and liquidity trends.
Bitcoin spot market activity still lacking
Bitcoin still needs more spot-market participation to exit its current low-timeframe range centered around $80,000, analysis argues.
Onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant notes that upside volatility seen over the past week was accompanied by sharp upticks in open interest (OI) on derivatives exchanges. This points to derivatives traders dictating snap price moves.
“Aggregate Open Interest rose from $25.2B to $27.53B: +$2.3B (+9.24%) in a single session. On the hourly timeframe, price and OI began expanding almost simultaneously around 09:00 UTC, pointing to a strong influx of new positions,” CryptoQuant reported about a previous price move on Sept. 3, when BTC/USD last rose above $82,000.
CryptoQuant noted that Bitcoin’s realized cap — the aggregate value of the BTC supply measured by the price at which it last moved onchain — has not kept pace with moves in OI.
“The conclusion is clear: the rally had spot/on-chain participation, but the main driver was derivatives. OI expansion, aggressive buying, positive funding, and rising leverage created a structure far more dependent on futures than on realized on-chain capital,” it continued.
Cointelegraph previously reported that the lack of spot demand is a major hurdle to a sustained BTC price trend change. As BTC/USD returned investors to net profit last month, profit taking surged.
CryptoQuant warns that spot demand remains negative, with values increasingly diverging from futures on a 30-day rolling basis.
“While futures demand is driving the rise, spot demand continues to show a negative trend. This is not a good signal, as there can be no bullish rally without spot demand. Despite the rebound, the outflow of spot $BTC has increased further,” it commented.
Bitcoin demand growth comparison (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
Last week, Cointelegraph reported on the return of negative apparent demand, which reflects that BTC’s dormant supply growth outpaced new issuance.
BTC price seals first weekly close above $80,000 in four months
Bitcoin narrowly touched $80,000 on Sunday, marking its highest weekly close since the week of May 11, per data from TradingView.
BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The $80,000 mark remains elusive support, however, with bulls unable to remain above it consistently as sell-side liquidity mounts immediately above this level. The latest data from CoinGlass shows liquidity concentrated around $80,560, forming a thick wall of resistance, which is keeping BTC/USD pinned in a narrow range.
BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass
Last month, onchain analytics platform Glassnode flagged large liquidity bands as key to shaping Bitcoin’s longer-term price action, highlighting a further band between $83,000 and $86,000 in particular.
“While the upward impulse consumed short orders in its path, it stopped short of the dense cluster of short liquidations situated between $83K and $86K,” it wrote in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, The Week Onchain.
“Below spot, the move left behind an intact band of long liquidation fuel between $60K and $63K. Price now trades between these two boundaries.”
Bitcoin futures liquidation heatmap. Source: Glassnode
Market participants, meanwhile, are considering where the current consolidation could resolve to fresh upside. Jesse Olson, developer of the Markets Sniper trading suite, sees BTC/USD repeating a bullish chart fractal from August 2023, with $76,000 now in sight as a local reversal point.
BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Jesse Olson on X.com
Bitcoin supertrend bull signal copies early 2023 recovery
Sunday’s weekly close saw a classic BTC price trend indicator flip green for the first time since November 2025.
On weekly time frames, BTC/USD closed above its supertrend line, producing a “buy” signal. Supertrend employs average trend range (ATR) data and a multiplier to calculate a simple buy and sell signal, measured by its interaction with the supertrend line.
Weekly time frames draw particular attention from Bitcoin traders, as a close above the supertrend line has never occurred within a bear market. The last time that supertrend flipped from red to green was in mid-January 2023, with Bitcoin’s last bear-market bottom of $15,600 already two months behind it. Conversely, the indicator flipping from green to red has preceded the start of protracted downtrends.
BTC/USD one-week chart with supertrend data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The signal joins a growing selection of cues that has instilled confidence in some that Bitcoin already saw its macro bottom at $57,000. In August, BTC/USD closed above its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) for the first time since late 2025 — an event that has historically been crucial for a long-term bullish price-trend reversal.
