The Wall Street spot ETF craze for Bitcoin, followed by President Donald Trump’s historic overtures to the Web3 industry and reelection with a mandate in November, pushed its price to all-time highs.
BTC entered Q4 last year at $60,800 and by Jan. 20th, shot up to a record of over $109,000. But soon after, the asset began a steep correction back to $85,000 to start off Q2.
Bitcoin’s Price Dip in Q1
Traders who bought at the Oct. 1 price last year were up by 79% the day of Trump’s inauguration. If they held through Mar. 31, they would still be up by 40%.
By most historical benchmarks, that’s very fast growth for the average American individual investor’s dollar. Some might say it is too fast and too risky, pointing to the volatility of Bitcoin markets, with such dramatic price swings in both directions.
But interestingly, Bitcoin’s price isn’t the only global economic benchmark that traced a dramatic upward swing through 2024 with a steep correction starting in Q1 of this year.
US stocks in the benchmark S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite charted the exact same pattern. The 30-day BTC Pearson Correlation to US stocks has remained positive since last August.
Moreover, the Bitcoin/stocks correlation accelerated into the financial melt up in Q4 and again during the course correction in Q1. So these trends indicated the macro forces in the economy for these price movements.
Bitcoin’s Price and Orange Prices Locked in Weird Correlation
Why orange juice is so expensive https://t.co/mF1WQn6LXi
— CNBC (@CNBC) April 3, 2025
Here’s where it gets even more interesting.
Bitcoin’s rally in 2024, bull run in Q4, and correction in Q1 also traced the same path through exchange markets that global orange prices followed over the same time periods.
Although the average global price of an orange was $3.21 in Jan. 2024, by last December it had risen sharply to $5.09. But by last month, it had fallen to $2.71, according to IMF data at the Federal Reserve.
It’s more economic data on the side of the theory that BTC’s price growth is mostly a function of the dollar’s expansion over GDP. Rising consumer prices are the same as Bitcoin’s rising prices in the same dollar tide.
Curiously enough, this correlation between Bitcoin and the dollar has continued a trend ongoing since the 2023 and 2020 cryptocurrency markets.
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