Bitcoin Rebound Backed by On-Chain Strength Despite Trade War Uncertainties

Bitcoin experienced a notable rebound this week, briefly touching $86,000. This was a welcome recovery after dipping to a low of approximately $75,000 on April 8th. According to Santiment’s latest insight, this surge appears to be fueled by a mix of improving blockchain fundamentals and a temporary easing of global tariff concerns.

However, market analysts note that retail investors remain less concerned with the macro reasoning behind these price moves and are more focused on momentum. As such, the recent breakout has visibly boosted trader confidence, marking the most bullish sentiment since trade tensions reignited at the start of April.

Bullish On-Chain Metrics

In the wake of BTC’s rally, prominent crypto advocates such as Michael Saylor have gained renewed attention. His firm, Strategy (MSTR), added an additional $285 million worth of Bitcoin to its holdings, which signaled continued long-term conviction. Broader tech markets also reflected this optimism, with companies like Apple rising 2.37% on Monday, following announcements of temporary tariff exemptions.

Despite the upward trend, experts caution against reading too much into the short-term relief. President Trump reiterated that no sector or country will be exempt from the upcoming trade measures, reaffirming that national security tariffs – particularly those impacting semiconductors and the electronics supply chain – remain on the table.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed that these tariffs are still expected to roll out within the next two months, which means ongoing uncertainty that could dampen market momentum in the near future.

Despite lingering market volatility, Santiment said that the recent price resilience is supported by several on-chain metrics.

One of the standout indicators is Network Realized Profit/Loss (NRPL), which is now consistently trending upward. Historically, sustained rallies in Bitcoin often require this metric to rise, signaling that participants are realizing profits in a healthy, non-panic-driven way—the increase in NRPL points to renewed confidence among long-term holders and traders alike.

Another critical signal is the ongoing decline in supply on exchanges. This suggests that fewer traders are preparing to sell and are choosing to move their BTC into cold storage or hold for the long term. Lower exchange balances often indicate reduced short-term selling pressure, which is typically a bullish sign.

Additionally, key stakeholder accumulation continues to intensify. Wallets holding 10 or more BTC have reached an all-time high, now collectively holding 16.36 million BTC. This rise suggests that larger holders – often viewed as more strategic or institutional players – are accumulating during the volatility.

Meanwhile, retail investors appear to be offloading, reflecting a familiar pattern of smaller holders capitulating while whales accumulate.

Blockchain’s Value Beyond Bitcoin

As tariff debates escalate, the crypto ecosystem is offering a unique solution to supply chain transparency. Blockchain technology is being used to track goods’ origins and movements more accurately than traditional systems, helping customs officials detect tariff circumvention.

Projects like Truebit are working with government vendors to integrate blockchain into trade compliance systems, broadening crypto’s utility. Globally, tensions persist – China halted rare-earth exports, and the EU paused retaliatory tariffs. President Trump plans a tariff review, while President Xi strengthens Southeast Asian ties.

Public sentiment remains sour. A CBS News poll from April 13th revealed that 59% of Americans believe the economy is worsening, and Trump’s economic approval ratings have declined. While crypto investors are marginally more hopeful, the sector remains closely tied to traditional markets, and Santiment believes that any signs of decoupling are likely to be short-lived.