Is a recession in the US confirmed? With the 10-year bond yield once again spiking above 4.40% and equity futures in free fall, the market is fearful of rising inflation and a Fed ready to hold the line against rate cuts.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market is a pressure cooker, with Bitcoin at its center. The question now is whether we are more likely to hit $100,000 or $75,000 in the next few months. Here’s what we think.
Is a Recession In the US Confirmed? Bitcoin Faces Significant Price Correction
Since January, Bitcoin’s value has dropped 20% from $110,000 to $86,000. Instead of countering uncertainty, it now mirrors the collapse of traditional equities, dragging its “digital gold” myth into murky waters.
However, the real market shock that could threaten BTC is President Donald Trump’s upcoming bid for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s chairmanship.
“It would be a huge, huge shock,” said Bilal Hafeez, CEO of Macro Hive. “Such a move could spark a confidence crisis, especially given Powell’s stability-focused policies.”
Trump: “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough.” pic.twitter.com/LA8VyXd29P
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) April 17, 2025
Political infighting and financial instability have the Federal Reserve on unsteady ground. Doubts are growing about its capacity to fend off recession, protect the dollar, and keep the markets from spiraling further into disarray.
Essentially, you have a war between the President of the United States and the Fed, and everyone is being pulled into the mess.
Bitcoin’s Divergence From Gold
While gold sits at its all-time highs, Bitcoin’s inability to maintain its safe-haven appeal has generated skepticism. Gold, while severely underperforming BTC in recent years, has held its ground, soaring to new highs and proving its worth in times of instability.
Bitcoin, however, continues to trade sideways.
“Bitcoin historically benefits from prolonged uncertainty. We could see it rebound once gold leads the charge,” noted crypto investor Lark Davis.
Expert Views on the Way Forward
Our final verdict is that while the specter of another 2008-style meltdown looms large, we believe it will be avoided, but not without serious volatility.
Bitcoin’s price action aligns closely with a 108-day Global M2 offset rather than the shorter 10—and 11-week estimates. Credit where credit is due for bringing this pattern to light.
Bitcoin’s future is now tied to evolving economic policy, global financial stability, and investor sentiment. With uncertainty gripping the markets, patience and adaptability will be crucial for navigating 2025.
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Key Takeaways
- Is a recession in the US confirmed? With the 10-year bond yield once again spiking above 4.40% and equity futures in free fall things aren’t looking good.
- While gold sits at its all-time highs, Bitcoin’s inability to maintain its safe-haven appeal has generated skepticism.
- For now, the debate about cryptocurrency’s place in America’s financial future is just beginning.
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