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A lot of peopleare excited about the potential of AI tools like ChatGPT to help them find information and make suggestions. But while some hope such a tool can help them decide what shares to buy for their ISA, I will not be touching that approach with a bargepole!
Why not? Here are three of my reasons!
Past performance is not automatically indicative of the future
Nobody knows what will happen in future, including in the stock market.
Smart human investors consider a company’s track record, but in the context of trying to decide how it may perform in future.
AI tools often like concrete rather than abstract inputs. I fear that means they may over-emphasise a company’s known past performance, instead of synthesizing its unknown possible future performance.
There is no average investor
Each investor is different.
But, if 100 investors were to ask an AI tool what the best shares to buy are, I think the answers may be fairly consistent. Now in fairness, ChatGPT did respond to my prompt, “what’s the best share for my ISA?” by saying it can depend on factors like one’s investment goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon.
Still, not paying enough attention to individual context could be highly problematic. Different investors have their own objectives and risk tolerances.
Mixing interpretation and facts
Something I have noticed ChatGPT seems to struggle with fairly regularly is clearly distinguishing between facts and people’s opinions.
Asking it what I ought to with my ISA, I fear that part of the response may potentially mix up facts and opinions.
For example, when I asked ChatGPT what the best share is for my ISA, although it said it would need more information as “best” depends on different factors, it nonetheless went on on the same page to offer me a list of “popular and potentially strong-performing shares commonly held in ISAs (based on current sentiment)”.
What “current sentiment” (whatever that means: whose sentiment is it?) thinks are the best shares for my ISA may not actually be the best shares for my ISA – or anywhere close.
For example, one share on the list is one I own: Diageo (LSE: DGE). I do think it has strong prospects, which is why I bought it.
But the share price performance has been poor: the FTSE 100 stock has fallen 28% in a year.
What about the dividend? Diageo’s 4.1% yield beats the FTSE average but is nowhere near the highest yield on the index. Yes, it has a strong track record of annual dividend increases – but nowhere near as strong as Spirax, for example.
So, is Diageo really the “best share for my ISA“? It could turn out to be. After all, it has strong brands, a large addressable market, proven business model, and unique assets. But it also has substantial debt and faces changing market dynamics that could see alcohol consumption fall, hurting Diageo’s sales and profits.
In other words, while Diageo may turn out to be the best share for my ISA, there are far too many unknowns to have any certainty.
Investing takes time, skill, a sense of one’s own objectives and risk tolerance, as well as an ability to interpret facts. I will not be leaving that to ChatGPT!
