BTC at Risk of Bigger Correction if This Key Metric Stays Weak

Bitcoin continues to struggle after the massive liquidation event earlier this month. The market’s optimism has cooled, and BTC is consolidating near $111,000 as traders remain cautious.

Technical Analysis

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

On the daily chart, BTC is hovering just above key support around $110,000, which is the critical 200-day moving average, while the 200-day moving average is acting as a resistance above the price around $116,000.

The $110,000 area remains critical, and a decisive breakdown could send the market toward $101,000 and the lower boundary of the large descending channel. Meanwhile, the RSI around 42 signals neutral momentum, reflecting hesitation among both bulls and bears. Unless Bitcoin reclaims $116,000 with strong volume, the broader uptrend remains at risk of losing its mid-term structure.

The 4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour chart highlights a tight consolidation between $110,000 and $116,000 after the strong downward impulse. The $110,000 range continues to hold as a demand zone, but repeated tests have weakened its reliability.

Resistance sits at $116,000, as already mentioned, which capped every recovery attempt over the past few days. The RSI also remains flat near 40, indicating equilibrium on the 4-hour timeframe, but the lack of momentum suggests the market could break down if sellers regain control.

Sentiment Analysis

Futures Open Interest

Open interest across exchanges has sharply declined following the recent selloff, reflecting a clear reduction in speculative activity. Traders are avoiding aggressive positions after getting liquidated during the last move down.

This decline in leverage shows that the market is resetting, but it also signals a lack of conviction for any strong bullish continuation in the short term. Investor sentiment remains fragile, as fear is outweighing greed, and most participants are waiting for a stronger confirmation before re-entering long positions.