Is Wave 5 Still Coming or a New Bull Trend Emerging?

Wave 4 pause hints at one final leg down before a major bullish reversal for XRP.

Ripple (XRP) suffered a 6% decline over the past day, and traders are now questioning whether the worst is over or if one more leg down is still on the cards.

Data suggest that this pause aligns with the classic Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) pattern, where extreme moves are often followed by a Wave 4 consolidation, and set the stage for a final impulse wave.

Market Ready to Reverse?

Historically, markets rarely pivot sharply after a massive Wave 3 move. Instead, analyst CasiTrades explained that they typically undergo one last exhausted drop, or Wave 5, before a steady trend reversal takes hold. Current price action appears to support this scenario. XRP remains trapped near Wave 4 resistance levels, as it failed to break decisively above the key $2.82 mark, even amidst market recovery.

The absence of a strong breakout points to a market that may need one more corrective wave to fully exhaust selling pressure before sentiment can shift bullish.

Cross-exchange data remains highly inconsistent, which has further complicated matters. Different trading pairs have reported wildly divergent lows, from sub-$1 prints to levels considerably higher. On Binance USD, XRP’s price momentarily dipped to $0.77, a staggering 72% decline from recent highs, breaching the .786 Fibonacci retracement.

While revisiting that extreme seems unlikely, the analyst warns that a retest of the .618 retracement near $1.46 – or the “golden pocket” around $1.35 is plausible in the next wave down. These levels coincide with multiple technical indicators, including Wave 5 extensions, macro retracements, and prior Wave 2 targets, which make them critical zones for accumulation and the setup for a strong reversal.

The potential silver lining for XRP traders lies in the chaos itself. The recent collapse may have pushed the broader Elliott Wave count from a shallow Wave 4 to a deeper macro Wave 2, laying the groundwork for a “powerful” impulsive move that could ultimately propel XRP toward $6.50-$10.00.

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$2 Test Looms

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez had recently made a concerning observation during which he said that XRP “looks like it wants to visit $2.” Martinez referenced XRP’s UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) to identify the next crucial support if the asset experiences another leg down, and flagged $2.10 as a potential low.

On the upside, he noted that a reversal could find immediate support at $2.80, a level that, if held, might pave the way for the crypto asset to resume its upward momentum toward $3.