Bitcoin’s (BTC) momentum has sharply reversed in the fourth quarter. While analysts expected the coin to set new highs, many now doubt whether BTC can even reclaim its previous peak. Forecasts are being revised downward as performance weakens.
This downturn comes despite a supportive macro environment. Demand is cooling, market strength is fading, and confidence appears to be eroding. So what changed? BeInCrypto spoke with Ryan Chow, Co-Founder of Solv Protocol, to unpack the shift in investor behavior and explore what Bitcoin will need to win 2026.
How Bitcoin Attracted and Lost Institutional Demand in 2025
Historically, the fourth quarter has been Bitcoin’s strongest, delivering an average return of 77.26%. Expectations for 2025 were even more ambitious as institutional adoption accelerated and a growing number of public companies added Bitcoin to their reserves.
Instead, the market reversed course. Bitcoin is down 20.69% so far in Q4, defying what has traditionally been its most favorable period.
According to Chow, early 2025 was defined by institutional onboarding.
“Spot ETFs, ETPs, and new mandates created an access shock, institutions were simply getting their baseline Bitcoin allocation in place, and mechanical inflows drove prices,” he said.
However, by late 2025, the environment had shifted. Chow revealed that structural buyers had already built their positions, forcing Bitcoin to compete directly with rising real yields.
Once the cryptocurrency stopped posting new highs, chief investment officers began to question the rationale for holding a non-yielding asset when T-bills, corporate credit, and even AI-driven equities offer returns simply for staying invested.
“I think the market is finally confronting a truth that’s been obvious for years: passive holding has reached its limits. Retail is distributing, corporates have stopped accumulating, and institutions are pulling back. This time, it’s not because they’ve lost faith in Bitcoin but rather, the current market design doesn’t justify large-scale allocation in a high-rate regime,” Chow added.
Moreover, the executive highlighted that Bitcoin’s market structure has shifted. After the ETF and halving trades, Bitcoin transitioned into an overcrowded macro position. He noted that the asset has transitioned from the structural repricing phase into a carry-and-basis environment, now dominated by professional traders.
The straightforward “ETF plus halving equals number go up” thesis has effectively run its course. According to him, the next phase of adoption will be driven by demonstrable utility and risk-adjusted yield. He told BeInCrypto that,
“The first half of 2025 was about access, everyone rushed to secure their baseline Bitcoin exposure. The second half is about opportunity cost, now Bitcoin has to earn its place in a portfolio against assets that actually pay you to hold them.”
Bitcoin, often referred to as digital gold, has long been promoted as an inflation hedge. Chow acknowledged that the asset will likely retain its identity as a store of value. However, he stressed that this narrative alone is no longer sufficient for institutional investors.
Expert Reveals Bitcoin’s Key To Winning Back Institutions in 2026
Chow cautioned that the market may be significantly underestimating the scale of macroeconomic changes in 2026. He argued that unless Bitcoin evolves into a form of productive capital, it will remain a cyclical, liquidity-dependent asset.
In that scenario, institutions would view and treat it precisely as such, rather than as a strategic long-term allocation.
“Bitcoin will no longer win on narrative alone. It must earn yield, or it will be structurally discounted. The volatility we’re seeing now is the market forcing Bitcoin to grow up,” he remarked.
So what safe, regulated yield products would bring institutions back in 2026? Chow pointed out that the real sweet spot lies in regulated, cash-plus Bitcoin strategies that resemble traditional investment products, featuring clear legal wrappers, audited reserves, and straightforward risk profiles.
He outlined three categories:
- Bitcoin-backed cash-plus funds: BTC held in qualified custody and deployed into on-chain Treasury bill or repo strategies, targeting an incremental 2 to 4% yield.
- Over-collateralised BTC lending and repo: Regulated vehicles lending against Bitcoin to high-quality borrowers. On-chain monitoring, conservative LTVs, and bankruptcy-remote structures will support this.
- Defined-outcome option overlays: Strategies such as covered calls, wrapped in familiar regulatory frameworks like UCITS or 40-Act vehicles.
Across all of them, several requirements remain non-negotiable. These include regulated managers, segregated accounts, proof-of-reserves, and compatibility with existing institutional custody infrastructure.
“The products that will bring institutions back aren’t exotic. They’ll look like Bitcoin-backed cash-plus funds, repo markets, and defined-outcome strategies, familiar wrappers, familiar risk controls, just powered by Bitcoin under the hood,” Chow claimed.
He further emphasized that institutions do not need 20% DeFi APY, which is often a red flag. A net annualized return of 2 to 5%, achieved through transparent and collateralized strategies, is sufficient to move Bitcoin from a “nice to have” to a “core reserve asset.”
“Bitcoin doesn’t need to become a high-yield product to stay relevant. It just needs to move from zero percent to a modest, transparent ‘cash-plus’ profile so CIOs stop treating it as dead capital,” the Solv co-founder mentioned to BeInCrypto.
What Bitcoin Yield Looks Like in Practice
Chow detailed that Bitcoin’s transformation into productive capital would shift it from a static gold bar to high-quality collateral capable of funding T-bills, credit, and liquidity across multiple venues. In this model, corporates pledge BTC into regulated on-chain vaults, receive yield-bearing claims in return, and maintain a clear line-of-sight to underlying assets.
Bitcoin would also serve as collateral in repo markets, as margin for derivatives, and as backing for structured notes, supporting both on-chain investment strategies and off-chain working capital needs.
The result is a multi-purpose instrument: Bitcoin as a reserve asset, a funding asset, and a yield-generating asset simultaneously. It mirrors the function Treasuries serve today but operates within a global, 24/7, programmable environment.
“If we get this right, institutions won’t talk about ‘holding Bitcoin’ so much as ‘funding portfolios with Bitcoin.’ It becomes the neutral collateral that quietly powers T-bills, credit, and liquidity across both traditional and on-chain markets,” Chow commented.
Institutions Want Yield: Can Bitcoin Provide It Without Compromising Its Principles?
While the applications are quite compelling, the question arises: can Bitcoin support regulated, risk-adjusted yield at scale without compromising its foundational principles?
According to Chow, the answer is yes, provided the market respects Bitcoin’s layered architecture.
“The base layer stays conservative; yield and regulation live in higher layers with strong bridges and transparency standards. Bitcoin L1 remains simple and decentralised, while the productive layer sits on L2s, sidechains, or RWA chains where wrapped Bitcoin interacts with tokenised treasuries and credit,” he noted.
The executive acknowledged that several technical challenges must be addressed. He emphasized that the ecosystem must evolve from trusted multisig setups to institution-grade bridging. Furthermore, it should establish standardised one-to-one-backed wrappers and develop real-time risk oracles.
“The ideological challenge is harder: post-CeFi collapse, skepticism runs deep. The bridge is radical transparency, on-chain proof-of-reserves, disclosed mandates, no hidden leverage. Crucially, productive Bitcoin remains optional; self-custody stays valid. We don’t need to change Bitcoin’s base layer to make it productive. We need to build a disciplined financial layer on top, one that institutions can trust and cypherpunks can verify,” the executive elaborated.
Ultimately, Chow’s message is clear: Bitcoin’s next phase will be defined not by narrative or speculation, but by disciplined financial engineering. If the industry can deliver transparent, regulated, yield-bearing structures without compromising Bitcoin’s core principles, institutions will return, not as momentum traders, but as long-term allocators.
The path to 2026 runs through utility, credibility, and Bitcoin, demonstrating its ability to compete in a world where capital demands productivity.
