Solana’s SOL (SOL) is down 72% from its all-time high of $295 and well below the $188 level seen during its spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) launch in October 2025. Since early December 2025, spot SOL ETF inflows have slowed while the price retraced sharply over four months.
At the same time, Solana’s onchain volumes and revenue metrics continue to rank higher against competitors, raising questions on whether SOL’s longer-term price prospects tilt toward a return to its all-time high.
SOL ETF resilience aligns with network use
Spot SOL ETFs launched in late October 2025, drawing over $100 million in average net inflows during their first five weeks. Since December 2025, the weekly inflows have decreased, averaging $20 million to $25 million as SOL price slid to $86 in February 2026.
Across the four-month drawdown, the cumulative outflows total just $11.3 million over two weeks. Spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETFs, by comparison, have logged four consecutive months of negative flows in the same period.
Solana’s network activity tells a different story than its price. Over the past 30 days, Solana processed $108 billion in decentralized exchange (DEX) volume, ahead of Ethereum’s $63.7 billion and Base’s $31.48 billion. Volumes in January reached $117 billion, exceeding those in December and November for the chain as well. The weekly averages since January 2025 have hovered near $20 billion to $25 billion.
In the last 24 hours, Solana generated $3.1 million in app revenue versus Ethereum’s $2.95 million. Active addresses stood at 2.17 million against 682,236, while chain fees reached $722,706 compared to Ethereum’s $356,438.
Solana’s RWA sector has also climbed to an all-time high of $1.71 billion, up 45% in 30 days, but Ether holds $15 billion of the $25.37 billion distributed asset value in that industry.
SOL support cluster and valuation gap
Crypto trader Scient noted two macro areas that may shape a potential bottom. The first is the 0.75 Fibonacci retracement zone of $60 to $70, a level associated with deeper pullbacks within larger uptrends.
The second is a weekly demand fair value gap (FVG) between $22 and $29, an area of prior liquidity imbalance that preceded the explosive rally to $200 from $25.
For now, the structure remains capped as the price holds below the weekly resistance of $120.
On the weekly chart, SOL has already tested the demand zone of $51 to $80, aligning with that retracement pocket, and may head for a recovery from its current price.
UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) data adds context. Over 6% of the supply last moved within the current price cluster, creating a dense cost basis zone. The next significant concentration, above 3% of supply, sits between $20 and $30.
From a valuation standpoint, SOL is near a realized supply cluster, while the ETF positioning has not unwound, and DEX turnover leads other chains despite its lower total value locked (TVL).
The price compression alongside consistent capital inflows and rising network use reveals a measurable gap between activity and valuation.
Whether that gap resolves through SOL’s price action depends on how the $51 to $80 level and the $120 resistance level interact with these factors over the coming months.
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