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Investors sent the Taylor Wimpey (LSE:TW.) share price lower in early trading today (30 July) following the publication of its first-half results for 2025. At one point, it was down 7% before recovering a little.
Although the housebuilder described its trading performance as “resilient” and claimed that it was “well positioned for growth”, the standout message for me was the news that affordability remains “constrained”. As a result, it reported “softer market conditions in the second quarter”.
It’s a reminder that despite the government’s emphasis on planning reform and its desire to “Get Britain Building Again” (one of its five national missions), there’s little point having lots of houses available if nobody wants to buy them.
And for most people, whether a home is affordable or not is determined by the cost of a mortgage.
Decision time
The Bank of England meets on 7 August to decide what to do about the base rate. Its Governor has previously said that the Bank will cut interest rates if the jobs market shows signs of slowing.
Unemployment is now at its highest level for four years and wages growth is easing. This could be a catalyst for a series of cuts in borrowing costs.
Most economists appear to be expecting a reduction in the base rate of around one percentage point by the end of 2026.
Another issue
Taylor Wimpey also had bad news on the cladding issue. The group’s increased its provision to cover additional works (“increased cavity barrier remediation behind brickwork and render”) by £222m.
Although this is a one-off cost to be recognised over several years, it’s a significant sum. It’s equal to approximately half of the group’s cash balance at 29 June.
A positive outlook
Despite the cautious update, the group’s reconfirmed that it plans to complete 10,400-10,800 homes (excluding joint ventures) this year. In 2024, it sold 9,972.
And it’s expecting its margin to improve during the second half.
Assuming the housing market does recover, I think the group’s well positioned to benefit. It has 76,000 plots available on which to build and retains a net cash position.
Until then, investors could take comfort from the generous dividend on offer. One of the advantages of the pullback in the share price is that the stock’s already generous yield has increased further.
Today, the group declared an interim dividend of 4.67p. Add this to last year’s final payment of 4.66p and the stock’s now yielding 9.3%, the highest on the FTSE 100. Of course, there are never any guarantees when it comes to dividends. But there’s nothing in today’s earnings release to suggest that its generous payout is under immediate threat.
However, this could change if the housing market remains in the doldrums. But I remain optimistic. Despite the affordability issues identified by Taylor Wimpey, net mortgage approvals in May increased for the first time since December 2024.
And an interest rate cut next month could help maintain this momentum.
In my opinion, the long-term prospects for the UK’s housebuilders are encouraging. All key stakeholders acknowledge there’s a shortage of housing and the security of home ownership is appealing to many. For this reason – plus its healthy dividend — an investor could consider adding Taylor Wimpey to their portfolios.
