Renowned macro analyst and Real Vision founder Raoul Pal has issued a forecast that the ongoing Bitcoin bull market may stretch into 2026—well beyond most conventional expectations of a peak in 2025. In a recent presentation, Pal walked through a range of macroeconomic indicators, historical price behaviors, and liquidity metrics that he says paint a compelling picture for an extended uptrend in digital assets.
Bitcoin Bull Market Depends On M2
At the heart of Pal’s thesis lies the notion of Global M2 money supply, a metric tracking the total liquidity in circulation worldwide. Pal observed that Bitcoin, along with other risk-on assets, tends to correlate closely with changes in Global M2. “If this is the case, then M2 is going to keep going up all f***ing year. If that is the case, then crypto and risk assets like tech will do well all year.”
By comparing current liquidity trends to those seen in 2017—when the dollar weakened considerably and equity markets soared in US President Donald Trump’s first term—Pal argues that the macro backdrop appears similarly poised for expansion. According to him, if major economies continue easing, it may drive the next phase of explosive crypto growth.
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Pal’s thesis revolves around the impact of global liquidity, particularly the role of Global M2 money supply as a leading indicator for Bitcoin and risk assets. He presented a correlation between Global M2 growth and crypto market performance, stating: “If this is the case, then M2 is going to keep going up all f***ing year. If that is the case, then crypto and risk assets like tech will do well all year.”
His analysis draws parallels to 2017, when Trump’s fiscal policies and monetary easing led to a prolonged period of dollar weakness, which fueled the crypto cycle. Similar conditions are unfolding now, with expectations of rate cuts and stimulus measures.
A crucial factor in Pal’s extended bull market thesis is the business cycle, which he tracks through the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index. Historically, an ISM reading above 50 signals economic expansion, which correlates with Bitcoin’s price surges. He noted: “Bitcoin goes up as the ISM goes up […] If the ISM gets up to its normal cycle peak of somewhere between 56 and 65, that will give us the magnitude of the rise in Bitcoin.”
Pal suggested that if ISM continues its upward trajectory, Bitcoin’s price could exceed $300,000 or higher. However, he refrained from making precise forecasts, emphasizing that probabilities, not certainties, drive market analysis.
Addressing the altcoin market, Pal maintained that Solana (SOL) and Ethereum (ETH) remain key components of his portfolio. Despite Solana’s recent drawdown of over 53%, he dismissed fears of a long-term decline: “Solana has overshot versus global M2 […]Solana should outperform Bitcoin for the rest of the cycle and Ethereum too, with Sui outperforming Solana.”
His broader view on altcoins is based on risk appetite shifts as financial conditions ease. Historically, altcoins outperform Bitcoin in the latter half of the cycle when investors seek higher-beta opportunities. Pal criticized the notion that there will be no altcoin season in this cycle, stating, “That’s all f****ing nonsense.”
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Pal emphasized that large pullbacks are a feature, not a bug of crypto bull markets. He detailed past corrections, pointing out that the current cycle has seen seven 20%+ corrections while maintaining a 600% gain from the lows. He warned traders against leverage and panic selling, reinforcing his “Don’t F* This Up**” thesis: “To make the money, to unf*** your future, you’re going to have to learn to deal with volatility.”
He compared the current correction to 2017, which saw multiple 30-40% pullbacks before peaking. Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) also indicates that the market is the second most oversold in this cycle, suggesting a potential recovery in the coming months.
Extending The Cycle To 2026
One of Pal’s most striking assertions is that the current cycle could extend into 2026 rather than peaking in 2025, as many analysts have projected. His reasoning is based on the prolonged period of economic stagnation before growth acceleration. He stated: “The business cycle is taking a long time below 50. It’s starting to expand now. That has probably extended the cycle into 2026.”
While he clarified that this is not a prediction but a working hypothesis, the implications could be significant. A longer cycle would allow for higher valuations, a sustained investment influx, and a gradual rather than explosive blow-off top.
Pal reiterated that the crypto market follows a predictable pattern, with a year-long “banana zone” of exponential growth. He noted that the current correction phase aligns with past cycles and should lead to a renewed rally by April-May. “We are now in correction phase one […] Then as we go into March, April, May, we start accelerating up again into the next phase of the banana zone.”
However, he warned that investors should expect another major correction before the final market top, cautioning against overleveraging and late-cycle exuberance.
Summarizing his outlook, Pal urged investors to maintain perspective and resist emotional trading. He emphasized the importance of long-term vision, proper portfolio construction, and patience: “You guys need patience more than anything else and need to understand markets […] Our futures are resting on the same thing.”
At press time, BTC traded at $88,617.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
