Following an impressive rally to new all-time highs (ATHs), bitcoin has been consolidating below the $120,000 range. However, market analysts have identified a signal that suggests the asset could see more explosive gains in the coming months.
This signal is the BTC golden cross. It always forms when its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crosses the 200-day equivalent. Golden crosses often precede massive price gains, although this does not happen all the time.
Golden Cross Appears Again
According to the crypto trader Merlijn, the bitcoin golden cross just appeared, increasing the chances of BTC going parabolic in the coming months. The trader mentioned that BTC ballooned 139% when the cross appeared in 2016 and 2,200% when it showed up in 2017.
Bitcoin also surged another 1,190% after the golden cross was spotted in 2020.
“Now it’s flashing again in 2025. Same setup. Same signal. Miss this and you’ll remember it forever. Bitcoin is about to leave orbit,” Merlijn stated.
Notably, not all golden crosses come with massive rallies. In September 2021, the signal flashed again, but BTC climbed only 50%. Another SMA crossover in October 2023 triggered a 45% rise in bitcoin’s price. These brief surges are often associated with the 50-day SMA failing to remain above its 200-day equivalent for an extended period. Short-lived crosses lead to minimal price spikes, while the long ones can trigger parabolic movements for bitcoin’s value.
Bitcoin Fundamentals Stay Positive
It is also worth noting that golden crosses do not always precede BTC price spikes. There have been cases where price crashes have followed the cross, primarily due to unfavorable macroeconomic conditions. One incident occurred in February 2020, when the COVID-19 outbreak, which affected the global financial market, led to a 62% decline in bitcoin’s price after the golden cross appeared.
Such experiences highlight the need to factor in broader technical and macro factors when analyzing the golden cross. Currently, analysts believe bitcoin fundamentals will support a sustainable bullish trend. With diminishing supply and rising demand, the chances of the bears taking control over the next few weeks are low.
However, market analyst Rekt Capital says BTC needs a daily close above $120,000 and a post-breakout retest to reach new highs. Currently, the asset is consolidating and facilitating money inflow into altcoins.
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