Migrating Bitcoin (BTC) to post-quantum standards will take at least 5-10 years, according to Bitcoin core developer and co-founder of crypto custody company Casa, Jameson Lopp, who weighed in on the ongoing quantum computer debate.
Lopp agreed with Adam Back, the CEO of crypto infrastructure company Blockstream, that there is no near-term threat to Bitcoin from quantum computers. Lopp said in an X post.
“Quantum computers won’t break Bitcoin in the near future. We’ll keep observing their evolution. Yet, making thoughtful changes to the protocol and an unprecedented migration of funds could easily take 5 to 10 years.
We should hope for the best, but prepare for the worst,” he added. In a separate post, he said the Bitcoin protocol is more challenging to upgrade to post-quantum standards than centralized software because of its distributed consensus model.
The debate over the quantum threat and possible solutions continues to be a major topic of discussion in the Bitcoin community, with a growing schism between Bitcoin maximalists, who urge caution in prompting changes to the protocol, and venture capitalists (VCs), who say the quantum threat is imminent.
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“Quantum-resistance solutions are affordable enough to be financed by non-profits and VCs,” Bitcoin maximalist Pierre Rochard said.
Rochard added that it would be so expensive to attack Bitcoin through quantum computers that the government would be forced to “subsidize it as a collective action problem.”
Samson Mow, a Bitcoin investor and CEO of wallet company and advocacy group JAN3, also cast doubt on the ability of a quantum computer to crack Bitcoin’s security.
“In reality, quantum computers can’t factor the number 21 — not 21 million — 21, without heavy customization to the algorithm,” Mow said.
Despite this, venture capitalists and other investment firms warn that BTC’s price is being impacted by the threat, or perceived threat, from quantum computers.
The price of BTC could dip below $50,000 if the protocol is not quantum-ready by 2028, according to Charles Edwards, the founder of digital asset investment fund Capriole.
Edwards called for Bitcoin node operators to enforce Bitcoin Improvement Proposal (BIP) 360, which introduces a quantum-ready signature scheme for BTC.
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