Despite extreme fear readings, XWIN Research says real demand and liquidity support a cautious bull phase.
XWIN Research Japan’s Trend Index has printed a “mild uptrend” score of 72/100, with Bitcoin (BTC) holding near the $91,000 mark.
This comes even while fear gauges and liquidity data are warning of fragile conditions, with analysts saying a mix of whale accumulation, recovering spot prices, and overstretched retail leverage is painting a cautiously bullish, but jumpy, backdrop for the market.
Trend Index Points to Cautious Bull Phase
According to XWIN, real demand and liquidity still back a positive bias, even though overheated retail and thin liquidity mean prices can swing either way sharply.
Bitcoin is consolidating in the high-$80,000 to low-$90,000 band after dropping from around $99,500 to about $86,500 in 11 days, holding above both the ETF average cost near $82,000 and the short-term holder cost basis around $85,500.
The DeFi asset management platform’s index sits in the “mild uptrend” zone (60–79), suggesting a constructive setup rather than a blow-off phase. That lines up with broader market data showing $130 billion had been added to its overall value when BTC started pushing toward $92,000.
Whale behavior is also an important part of the story. Per on-chain data cited by XWIN, holders with more than 10,000 BTC are back in net accumulation, and there has been steady buying from 1,000–10,000 BTC wallets up to cohorts holding less than 1BTC.
Additionally, the research firm highlighted data from Cointelegraph showing the world’s top 100 listed firms now hold over 1,058,000 BTC, which it believes is a sign that corporate stacks are shifting from a side note to a central theme of the asset’s investment case.
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At the same time, it pointed to net outflows of 3,959 BTC from centralized exchanges over the past 24 hours, combined with the largest futures open interest wipeout of the cycle, which went from about $45 billion to $28 billion, as a sign that leveraged excess has been flushed, leaving spot demand in better shape.
Diverging Signals
Despite the recent show of price resilience, sentiment is still bleak, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 22. However, XWIN noted that many investors are seeing the $80,000 region as “fair value” for Bitcoin.
According to the firm, traders are also watching a significant options expiry, with 147,000 BTC contracts worth $13 billion set to mature on November 28, which could introduce short-term volatility.
Key price zones are also in focus, with XWIN suggesting a break above the $93,000 to $94,000 resistance band could pull Bitcoin toward the symbolic $100,000 mark. Even so, a drop below the $85,500 support could test further lows.
Meanwhile, altcoins are still lagging, with November’s wipeout having left many majors as much as 50% down. Still, analysts argue that capital is building in stablecoins ahead of a potential rotation. And with ETH back above $3,000, the network raising block gas limit, and pilots like tokenized money market funds going on-chain, XWIN believes the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency may be entering the early stage of a new upswing.
