Ether (ETH) is trading near $3,300, and one futures market trend points to another 10% to 25% upside move. However, the market may first see a liquidation-driven price dip before any sustained rally develops.
Key takeaways:
Ether’s Leverage Ratio is near 0.60, a level that has historically preceded 10% to 25% rallies after short pullbacks.
The ETH SOPR remains below 1, indicating realized losses still outweigh profits despite recent price gains.
Ether leverage setup favors upside after a short cleanup
Crypto analyst Pelin Ay highlighted a recurring structure in Ether’s leverage dynamics. When the Leverage Ratio rises rapidly above price on Binance, it leads to short-lived downside wicks that flush overleveraged long positions, followed by strong upside reactions.
This pattern appeared multiple times in 2025, notably in February, April, September and November. A similar sequence occurred in October, when a sharp leverage spike triggered a sudden dump before the trend continuation.
Currently, the Leverage Ratio sits near 0.60, which is relatively elevated. Notably, the leverage is not declining despite recent price gains, signaling persistent risk appetite. Pullbacks at these leverage levels have preceded 10% to 25% rallies, implying Ether could still be positioning for a sharp upside move after a final liquidity sweep.
Meanwhile, Glassnode analyst Sean Rose noted a divergence in ETH holder behavior. Despite Ether outperforming Bitcoin from January lows, ETH’s spent-output profit ratio remains below 1, indicating that the aggregated losses outweigh profits. This suggests a weaker conviction among ETH spot holders compared to the BTC participants.
Data suggests an ETH dip is overdue
Ether printed its highest daily close since Nov. 12, 2025, at $3,324. A 25% rally from here would place ETH above $4,100, but the probability of a minor dip remains elevated.
On the daily chart, Ether formed an order block from $3,050 to $3,170 during the recent impulse. This zone aligns with the point of control on the Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP), an indicator that highlights the price level where the most trading volume has occurred since September 2025.
The price could gravitate back to this level, as it represents an area of fair value where buyers and sellers previously agreed on the price.
Supporting this view, Hyblock data shows net long concentration above $500 million between $3,040 and $3,100. Such dense positioning increases the likelihood of a short-term sweep into this range, potentially setting the stage for a stronger continuation move afterward.
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