Options traders in the Bitcoin market are now pricing in a better-than-even chance that the coin stays under $66,000 through late April — a sign of how quickly sentiment has turned since Thursday.
Fear Takes Hold In The Options Market
The shift shows up clearly in one key metric. Bitcoin’s 30-day options delta skew climbed to 15% on Friday, a level that signals traders are paying a sharp premium for downside protection.
Under normal conditions, that figure sits between -6% and 6%. Based on data from derivatives platform Deribit, put options — bets that price will fall — were trading at 0.0580 BTC, or roughly $3,786, for an April 24 contract at the $66,000 strike.
That pricing implies a 50% probability of Bitcoin staying below that level by month’s end. Fear has been the dominant force in Bitcoin options since mid-January.
The broader selloff hit hard on Friday. Bitcoin dropped to $65,500, a 7.5% fall from the $71,300 it had reached just the day before. That single move wiped out more than $200 million in leveraged long positions and rendered nearly all call options worthless ahead of an $18.5 billion monthly expiry.
Bears were in control. Put options at the $69,000 strike or above carried over $2 billion in open interest, and 95% of call options expired void.
Part of the drop, reports indicate, had little to do with price conviction. Some traders simply didn’t want to carry Bitcoin exposure into the weekend, a common pattern when geopolitical risk is elevated and US markets are about to close.
Oil At $100 And Rising Bond Yields Squeeze Risk Assets
The pressure on Bitcoin didn’t come from crypto alone. West Texas Intermediate crude oil hit $100 a barrel on Friday. The jump is tied to rising tension in the Middle East, along with projections of up to $200 billion in additional US military spending.
That combination stoked inflation fears and pushed investors toward safer positions. Five-year US Treasury yields reached 4%, up from 3.70% just three weeks earlier — a fast move by bond market standards. The S&P 500 fell to its lowest point since September 2025.
Where Bitcoin Might Be Headed
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has underperformed the S&P 500 by 20% so far this year. That gap is wider than the broader macro environment alone can explain.
For now, the options market has its answer on where Bitcoin is headed this April — and it isn’t higher. With macro pressure building, policy tailwinds fading, and traders reluctant to hold through the weekend, the path of least resistance points downward.
Whether Bitcoin holds $66,000 or breaks below it may depend less on the coin itself and more on what happens in Washington and the Middle East before the month runs out.
