Is BTC About to Break Below $100K After Recent Rejection?

Bitcoin has recently approached its all-time high of $109K, demonstrating strong bullish momentum. However, the rally has temporarily paused, suggesting a potential consolidation or corrective phase before the next breakout attempt.

Technical Analysis

The Daily Chart

Bitcoin extended its sharp upward move after breaking above the key psychological resistance at $100K, climbing toward its all-time high of $109K. Yet, the bullish momentum has stalled at this critical region, with the price entering a brief consolidation. This resistance zone likely contains a substantial supply, as traders begin to realize profits and anticipate a corrective phase.

Given the current market structure, a short-term retracement or sideways consolidation toward the $100K support level appears likely before any attempt at a decisive breakout above $109K to establish a new ATH.

The 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin’s weakness around the $109K resistance becomes more apparent. After testing this level, the price has gradually lost momentum, forming a consolidation pattern that resembles a potential double-top.

Moreover, a clear bearish divergence between the price and the RSI suggests that sellers are gaining traction as bullish momentum fades. These signals point toward a likely short-term correction or consolidation around the $100K zone before the market regains strength for another breakout attempt.

On-chain Analysis

By ShayanMarkets

While Bitcoin neared its all-time high around $109K, profit-taking activity is expected as traders look to secure gains. Consequently, BTC’s extended consolidation near ATH levels can largely be attributed to significant profit realization by market participants.

However, the recent behavior of long-term holders (LTHs), investors who have held their assets for over 150 days, tells a different story, as reflected in the LTH SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) metric.

It has been trending downward even as the price approached the $109K range. This decline suggests that long-term holders have not yet engaged in notable profit-taking. Instead, they appear to be accumulating, signaling confidence in higher price targets and anticipating new all-time highs.

Therefore, the current consolidation phase seems to be primarily driven by short-term holders and retail traders. Based on this behavior, Bitcoin is likely to resume its bullish trend following this pause, potentially leading to a fresh impulsive rally and new all-time highs in the mid-term.