Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes has warned that the global financial system is headed for its largest money-printing episode in history.
He argues that the U.S. faces economic collapse unless it injects at least $9 trillion into the economy, a move that would trigger Bitcoin’s rise to $250,000.
Hayes’s $9T Debt Doom Loop
Hayes’ analysis, dissected by writer Giovanni Incasa in a series of posts on X, hinges on unavoidable economic pressures converging into a perfect storm.
He argued that government-sponsored enterprises like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will require $5 trillion to stabilize the mortgage market, with an additional $4 trillion needed for banking system bailouts.
The crypto entrepreneur also contended the situation isn’t a policy choice but “economic physics,” where the debt-based system demands exponential growth, without which it would face “immediate systemic collapse.”
Hayes further highlighted a flight of foreign capital from Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore that would repatriate dollars and accelerate the crisis. He believes this exodus would eliminate a crucial pillar supporting U.S. asset valuations, leaving the Federal Reserve as the sole purchaser of all assets.
Compounding this, the Maelstrom CIO pointed to the looming intergenerational transfer, where retiring Boomers must sell assets like stocks and real estate, but Millennials lack the capital or desire to buy at current prices. The solution? “The government prints money to create artificial demand,” facilitating wealth transfer via inflation.
These forces, Hayes asserted, make $9 trillion in new money a mathematical certainty within the current framework.
His final conclusion is stark: this tsunami of liquidity, chasing Bitcoin’s fixed 21 million supply, mathematically dictates a price target of $250,000. He claimed that the OG cryptocurrency has the capacity to “absorb the excess liquidity” without needing artificial support, unlike “government-dependent zombie” traditional assets.
Bitcoin’s Mixed Signals
Hayes’ $250,000 target isn’t particularly unique, with Tom Lee and Tim Draper having forecasted a similar price tag for BTC in the past.
CryptoQuant and TeraHash also previously issued projections for the asset in the $130,000 to $200,000 range based on historical Q4 strength, ETF inflows, potential Fed cuts, and MiCA implementation. However, Charles Schwab and Mike Novogratz took it a notch higher, estimating BTC will hit $1 million.
Despite the rosy long-term macro predictions, traders are currently focused on navigating potential volatility around the $105,000 support level as they await clearer signals on Fed policy and global trade tensions.
Bitcoin’s latest price action reflects a market grappling with this uncertainty. At the time of writing, it was trading around $115,727, showing modest resilience with a 1.6% 24-hour gain. It still remains down 2.4% over the past week, experiencing technical correction since its July 14 all-time high of more than $123,000.
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