Numerous Shifts: Bitcoin and Crypto Holiday Rally Chances Plummet

Crypto traders haven’t had much to cheer about during the holiday season.

But headed into the final stretch of 2025, predictors on Myriad can express their discontent (or uncommon bullishness) by predicting whether or not Santa will bring a rally which would send Bitcoin back towards $100,000 and Ethereum near $4,000.

Other top markets this week include whether or not President Trump will pardon Samourai Wallet developer Keonne Rodriguez by February, plus predictions on the fate of beloved “Stranger Things” character, Steve Harrington.

(Disclaimer: Myriad Markets is a product of Decrypt’s parent company, Dastan.)

Will Santa bring us a rally?

Market Open: December 8Market Close: December 23Volume: $21.2KLink: See the latest odds on the “Will Santa bring us a rally?” market on Myriad

Santa is set to bring gifts to children all over the world next week. But will he bring a rally to crypto markets as well?

Predictors on Myriad don’t think so—and the consensus is overwhelming.

Myriad’s “Santa rally” market asks predictors whether or not at least three of the following price levels will be hit or exceeded between now and December 25: $99,000 BTC, $3,900 ETH, $199 SOL, or $999 BNB.

As of Thursday afternoon, odds are overwhelmingly against it, with 96% not expecting a positive surprise from Santa that would send any three of the aforementioned assets to their respective marks.

Each of the four assets have fallen in the last 30 days—though BTC and ETH have been the stronger two, dropping 8.5% and 11.4%, respectively. SOL and BNB have dropped 16.2% and 11.8%, respectively, in the same timeframe.

That’s dropped them all even further from the rally marks, all of which are at least 13% above their current standings.

As such, odds of “no rally” have jumped about 12% in the last week as the window available for a Christmas surge dwindles.

What’s Next? Predictions for this market close two days before Christmas.

Will Trump pardon Keonne Rodriguez before February 2026?

Market Open: December 16Market Close: January 29Volume: $2.37KLink: See the latest odds on the “Will Trump pardon Keonne Rodriguez before February?” market on Myriad

Samouri Wallet developer Keonne Rodriguez was sentenced to five years in prison in November for his role in creating a Bitcoin mixer application.

Earlier this week, President Trump told Decrypt that he’d “look at” a potential pardon for Rodriguez. Now, predictors on Myriad are asked whether he may receive a pardon before February.

As it stands on Thursday, predictors are confident Rodriguez will not be pardoned by February, with odds against standing at 80%. That’s despite the fact that key advocacy groups are supporting Rodriguez, alongside Trump’s comments this week on the matter.

The case maintains heightened controversy, particularly for privacy advocates and developers who believe the case undermines developers’ ability to work on privacy-focused blockchain tools.

But while Trump has pardoned other crypto-connected individuals like Silk Road creator Ross Ulbricht and Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, Rodriguez is less optimistic about his chances, telling Decrypt this week, “We don’t have billions of dollars. We don’t have the same type of influence people like that have.”

What’s Next? The market closes on January 29, 2026.

Will Steve Harrington Die in Stranger Things Season 5?

Market Open: November 11Market Close: December 25Volume: $22.4KLink: See the latest odds on the “Will Steve Harrington Die?” market on Myriad

The hit sci-fi show “Stranger Things” has returned for its final season, with the first batch of episodes releasing in November, the next batch arriving on Christmas, and the feature-length series finale set to drop on New Year’s Eve.

Myriad predictors can now place trades on their belief as to whether or not key character Steve Harrington, played by Joe Keery, will make it through the season alive.

As of Thursday afternoon, predictors are choosing life, giving odds of Steve’s death just a 17% chance of occurring. That’s about 14% less likely than his odds to die last week, with the events of the initial four episodes perhaps reassuring predictors.

Theories about which main character will die abound on the internet, and some Reddit threads dedicated to Steve are “100% certain” he will not perish by the time the series concludes on December 31.

But others are less certain, pointing to a recent Tonight Show clip with the Duffer Brothers—the Stranger Things creators—which saw them push a Steve figurine off a desk.

Myriad’s market will only resolve “yes” if there is clear, on-screen evidence of Steve’s death. According to market rules, “An ambiguous outcome—such as his disappearance, an off-screen fate, or any unclear status” will lead to a “no” resolution.

What’s Next? The next episodes of Stranger Things drop on December 25, with the finale arriving as the year comes to a close.