According to Adobe’s annual analysis, this year’s shopping season won’t just break records—it will rewrite the playbook. AI assistants are set to steer how people search, shop, and spend, while buy-now-pay-later plans can help cash-stretched consumers keep the holiday magic alive.
Each year, Adobe uses data from its Adobe Analytics platform to predict what the shopping landscape and consumer behavior will look like between November 1 and December 31. According to Adobe’s description, the data includes input from many of the top 100 retailers in the U.S., covering over 1 trillion visits to retail sites, 100 million stock-keeping units (SKUs), and 18 product categories.
In 2025, Adobe says that the holiday shopping season will be bigger than ever—and AI will play a key role in guiding how shoppers fill their carts. Here are three main takeaways from the analysis.
Holiday shopping will reach a record high, but it’s growing sluggishly
Holiday shopping is expected to reach a record high this year: Adobe predicts that shoppers will spend a total of $253.4 billion, up 5.3% from last year. That’s a head-turning sum, but it’s actually a slower rate of growth compared with 2024, when Adobe Analytics predicted that the total would increase by 8.7%.
The slowdown comes as inflation persists and consumer spending remains dampened. In a survey conducted by PricewaterhouseCoopers that was released in early September, shoppers reported that, for the upcoming holiday season, they expect to spend 5.3% less than in 2024 (about $1,552 per person). It’s the first notable drop since 2020, when average spending fell 7.6%, to $1,187.
“You have consumers dealing with a lot in the broader economy,” Vivek Pandya, director at Adobe Digital Insights, told Reuters. “We anticipate them taking advantage of these major sales moments, and we still see them leaning on the online sector as an area to get better deals.”
Buy your Christmas gifts now, pay for them later
Given that consumers’ wallets are tighter this year, Adobe predicts that a good chunk of holiday shoppers will turn to buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) services to help spread out the costs. BNPL transactions are expected to drive $20.2 billion in online spending—roughly $2 billion more than the 2024 holiday season.
These numbers don’t come as a surprise, as BNPL usage has become increasingly common over the past several months. An April LendingTree survey found that consumers are increasingly relying on BNPL services for quotidian purchases like groceries and food delivery, while Grand View Research predicted earlier this year that the BNPL market will see a 26.1% annual compound growth rate between 2023 and 2030.
AI-assisted shopping is in
Over the past several months, brands including Ralph Lauren and Pinterest have invested in their own AI tools to drive online shopping. The AI-powered app Daydream is purpose-built to help users find the perfect outfits. AI features are becoming increasingly intertwined in the overall shopping process—from how users find gift inspiration to the search engines they query and the sites they shop on.
Last year was the first time that Adobe noticed a measurable surge in AI traffic to U.S. retail sites before the holidays. But it won’t be the last.
“Generative AI-powered chat services and browsers are changing how consumers act online, becoming a helpful assistant for compiling research before making a purchase,” the brand’s report reads. “Adobe observed the first material surge in AI traffic to U.S. retail sites (measured by shoppers clicking on a link) during the 2024 season, with traffic increasing 1,300% year over year. For the 2025 season, Adobe expects AI traffic to rise by 520% year over year, peaking in the 10 days leading up to Thanksgiving.”
In an Adobe survey of 5,000 consumers, more than one-third reported having used an AI-powered service for online shopping, with top use cases including research, product recommendations, and gift inspiration.
