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Key takeaways:
- Over-leveraged Bitcoin short positions between $63,000 and $66,000 have created a potential $2.6 billion squeeze trap for bears.
- Negative perpetual funding rates indicate that bulls have fully deleveraged, significantly reducing downside risk.
The Bitcoin (BTC) crash to $61,100 on Friday wiped out $335 million in leveraged long positions. However, after a 21% decline in Bitcoin’s price, bulls might have set a perfect trap as negative market sentiment intensified. Bearish positions built up heavily between $63,000 and $66,000, setting the stage for a potential $2.6 billion short squeeze.
Estimated cumulative Bitcoin liquidation at major exchanges, USD. Source: CoinGlass
Estimated liquidations for a further 8% drop in Bitcoin to $57,000 from $62,000 stand at $1.2 billion. In contrast, a rally to $66,000 would put $2.6 billion of short positions at risk. This potential squeeze might provide enough fuel to revive buyer confidence following a record-breaking 13-day streak of net outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs daily net flows, USD. Source: SoSoValue
The minor $3 million net inflow on Thursday could represent a temporary breathing room after 15 days of selling that drained $5.1 billion. It remains too early to conclude that momentum has officially flipped in favor of the bulls. Ultimately, if bears kept their leverage low and played conservatively, the actual threat of a massive short squeeze might be minimal.
Bitcoin perpetual futures annualized funding rate. Source: Laevitas
A neutral funding rate typically ranges between 6% and 12%, with longs paying to keep their positions open. The current negative 2% Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rate suggests growing confidence among bears. Thus, even if it takes time for Bitcoin to reclaim the $66,000 level, bulls have fully deleveraged, reducing downside risk.
Nasdaq 100 futures (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView
Bitcoin has severely underperformed the Nasdaq 100 index, but the tech sector is beginning to display weakness after Broadcom (AVGO US) closed down 12.6% Thursday, erasing $280 billion in market value. The company trimmed its AI chip sales forecast for the second half of 2026, putting investors on alert.
Impact of the tech sector IPOs and Strategy’s 32 BTC sale
Other prominent names in the AI sector also felt the impact. Micron (MU US) traded down 7.8% while Arm (ARM US) dropped 4.5%. With highly anticipated IPOs from SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI in sight, investors likely opted to raise cash ahead of those offerings. Analysts claim this liquidity drain also contributed to Bitcoin’s recent weakness.
Related: Strategy’s leveraged Bitcoin model has faced its first stress test–Grayscale
Source: X/dgt10011
Jeff Park, partner at ParaFi Capital and Bitwise advisor, argues that the AI sector is draining money from other investments as the market becomes a “hot ball of money” that everyone suddenly “has to own”. However, Park reminds that once this period of AI mania blows off, capital will eventually rotate back to Bitcoin as its discounted valuation works in its favor.
Regardless of whether Bitcoin’s weakness stems from AI sector hype, excessive confidence from bears poses a major risk once spot Bitcoin ETF inflows pick up or the fear surrounding a recent 32 BTC sale from Strategy (MSTR US) dissipates. A rally back to $66,000 might seem unlikely at first glance, but a sudden short squeeze could quickly shift momentum in favor of the bulls.
