Bitcoin may be quietly setting up its next big move. Despite this week’s sell-off, a crypto analyst has spotted a pattern on the weekly chart that last appeared in 2023, shortly before BTC launched a rally that more than doubled its price.
BTC is currently trading around $76,000, sitting just above its weekly 50-period moving average (MA) at roughly $75,500. That comes after the price was rejected from the weekly MA 100 near $87,400, leaving Bitcoin stuck between the two lines.
According to the analyst, this is exactly where Bitcoin found itself in 2023. Back then, BTC spent months consolidating between the weekly MA 50 and MA 100 before breaking out and kicking off a new bull phase.
The question now is whether the Bitcoin market is about to replay that script.
And the last time this happened, the results were hard to ignore.
How The 2023 Setup Played Out
For most of 2023, Bitcoin moved sideways. Between mid-March and mid-October, the price was largely stuck in a narrow range between roughly $24,000 and $28,000 as the market recovered from the 2022 crash.
Then things changed fast. On October 23, 2023, BTC pushed through its July high of around $31,800 and set a new 2023 record and 52-week high. The move squeezed traders betting against the market, with crypto shorts taking an $86 million beating in a single day.
A day later, Bitcoin topped $35,000 for the first time since May 2022. The main driver was growing confidence that BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF would soon be approved, alongside short liquidations and steady institutional buying, as covered in this breakdown of why Bitcoin was skyrocketing to $35,000.
The rally didn’t stop there. BTC blasted back above $39,000 in early December, cleared $44,000 shortly after, and closed 2023 with a gain of roughly 156%.
The breakout was then confirmed by fundamentals. On January 10, 2024, the SEC approved 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs, and by March 2024 Bitcoin was setting fresh all-time highs above $73,000.
Bitcoin Is Back Between The Same Moving Averages
Fast forward to 2026, and the weekly chart looks strikingly similar.
In late September, Bitcoin was holding near $84,000. It then tested the weekly MA 100 near $87,400, got rejected, and slid back toward the weekly MA 50.
That puts BTC in the same zone it occupied before the 2023 breakout: above the MA 50, below the MA 100, and building a base. If the pattern holds, this consolidation could be the launchpad rather than the top.
Key Levels Bulls Need To Watch
On the support side, the weekly MA 50 at about $75,500 is the first line of defense. Bitcoin is trading just above it right now, so holding this level on a weekly close matters.
If that fails, the next major support is the weekly MA 200 at around $67,800. In past cycles, this long-term average has acted as a key floor during corrections.
On the upside, the first hurdle is $82,000. Above that, the weekly MA 100 near $87,400 is the big one.
According to the analyst, if Bitcoin reclaims the weekly MA 100 and holds above it, the door opens for another major rally, just like in 2023.
Momentum Is Cooling, Not Breaking
The momentum indicators support a patient but constructive view.
The weekly RSI is sitting near 50, which is neutral territory and still above the zone usually associated with bear markets. In other words, the broader trend has cooled but has not broken down.
The Stochastic RSI looks weaker, suggesting short-term momentum could fade a little further. The analyst sees room for the RSI to dip toward 44 before Bitcoin makes its next move higher. That kind of reset is common during consolidations and often clears the way for stronger rallies.
The similarities to 2023 are hard to ignore. But first, Bitcoin needs to hold its support.
What do you think happens next?
Is Bitcoin about to replay its 2023 breakout, or does it need one more dip toward $67,800 before the next leg up?
