Ether (ETH) bulls are eyeing a move back toward $2,800 in March, with at least three indicators showing ETH price potential to rise higher.
Key takeaways:
Ether’s price jumped by over 9% toward $2,280 on Monday.
Multiple indicators, including a symmetrical triangle, hint at an extended price rally toward $2,800.
Ether invalidates a bearish chart pattern
On Sunday, Ether’s price action invalidated what initially appeared to be a bear pennant on the daily chart.
Related: Ethereum Foundation sells $10.2M worth of ETH to BitMine in OTC deal
The ETH/USD pair pierced through the pennant’s upper trend line at $2,100, jumping 9.8% to a six-week high of $2,287 on Monday. Its breakout came alongside a rise in trading volume, implying stronger conviction behind the rally.
The price also reclaimed two key support lines in the name of the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA, red line) and the 50-day EMA (yellow line) at $2,072 and $2,210, respectively.
That simultaneously increased the odds of a symmetrical-triangle bullish reversal.
A symmetrical triangle forms when price makes lower highs and higher lows, compressing into a tightening range. It resolves when the price breaks either of the trendlines and moves by as much as the pattern’s maximum height.
In Ether’s case, the measured move above the upper trend line points to about $2,850, 26% above the current price. The level aligns with the 200-day EMA (the purple line), as shown in the chart above.
Ether’s next hurdle is the 100-day EMA (blue) near $2,500.
As Cointelegraph reported, a rejection there would weaken the breakout and raise the odds of a pullback.
Onchain data caps Ether’s upside at $2,800
ETH has been oscillating within a wide range defined by the realized price at $2,350 on the upside and on the downside at the lowest MVRV band of $1,650.
The chart below shows that the recent rebound off the lowest MVRV band mirrors the market structure observed in Q2 2022, where the price rallied past the realized price before being rejected by the first MVRV band just above.
This similarity reinforces the outlook that the current recovery attempt could be stopped around $2,650, where the first MVRV band sits above the realized price.
Glassnode’s Entity-Adjusted UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD), showing at which prices the current set of ETH UTXOs were created, also revealed a dense supply zone at $2,770-$2,880 that has been gradually maturing into the long-term holder cohort. This is where investors acquired more than 7.9 million ETH.
This unresolved supply overhang remains a persistent source of sell pressure, likely to cap attempts around the $2,800 level.
Meanwhile, ETH’s cost-basis distribution heatmap shows a heavy accumulation near $2,800, where more than 3 million ETH were previously purchased, suggesting a potential pathway toward this level in the short term.
Polymarket’s odds of $2,800 ETH price in March rise
Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market where users trade contracts on real-world outcomes, is showing a clear bullish shift for Ether in March.
Traders now assign 13% odds that ETH reaches $2,800 in March, a 10% increase over the last 24 hours. The $2,600 and $2,400 targets carry even stronger convictions at 32% and 69%, respectively.
At the same time, the odds of the ETH price reaching $1,800 and $1,600 in March are priced lower than before, suggesting the crowd is trimming downside expectations.
